holograms

we haven't seen much more of cnn's hologram or its 3D congress (sounds like dodgy porn) but here's Comedy Central's photoshopping on the immediately obvious meme:

trends

CNN are now comparing current numbers of votes coming it to 2004. The swing to Obama is enormous 10-20% depending on the place, but across the country.
This is a landslide. Woo-hoo!

In Indiana

Looks like Obama has lost Clinton County, but taken White County.
How apt...

dodgy florida

Strange numbers coming in from Florida. Obama's taken a huge lead. But the NY Times site gives a detailed breakdown by county, and apparently Pasco county, with 0% reporting, has Obama leading 54,433 to 6.
Revenge of the chads?

CNN have weird hologram thing going on - and kind of breaking down. Which is probably better than all the heads talking at once.

Rumours that the leaked early exit polls are bad for Obama. Nobody really trusts that though.

So who to watch?

So much live coverage. I'm ignoring the NOS, as that's just pitched all wrong. And they're streaming CNN, MSNBC & Fox online - but with a half hour delay!
Popped onto BBC for now - shots of the crowd gathering at Grant Park, supervised by John Simpson. So expect some attack (posibly by the US military). But ehy're very background type.
For the numbers coming in live, which is what a geek wants, then CNN's the best option. Very annoying people (Blitzer especially) though not as bad as the unusual haircuts at MSNBC. WH\ho are supposed to be more left, but the screen's full of share prices numbers which just messes with my head. And Keith Halbermann's weird.
Sky look like they should stop standing next to bridges and get a studio.

live blogs

A few I'm using:
Oliver Burkeman at the Guardian
Swampland at Time
Independent/Global View

Early voting

Sean Quinn over at 538 is summing up the early voting numbers. The total number of early votes isn't that remarkable really, except in a few states which he rightly points out. Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.
All Bush states with Obama ahead in the polls (except for Georgia, which is being tipped by some as the big surprise). And *massive* early voting numbers.
The breakdown per state at the Early Voting Project site is very interesting. There, the per state variance with 2004 can be seen. Again, possible Obama states like Indiana and Montana show a large increase in turnout. (and it's still amazing that Montana might vote for Obama!) Arizona, in contrast, has a huge drop in numbers - which conversely might also help Obama, as this is America's second retirement state (after Florida) and the early vote there would traditionally be expected to be pro-McCain retirees.
Lastly here for the Early Voting polls. Suggests an absolute landslide. There might be only Kentucky and Idaho going for McCain! We'll see as the first results come ina few minutes...

Be afraid, be very afraid

Here's Jon Oliver talking about his excellent segment on The Daily Show about fear in rally-attendees. His last statement is basically "don't underestimate the stupidity of American voters".
Could McCain really win?

All this and more at Indecision 2008.

want to know...

What a train wreck of a campaign McCain has run. Here's a quote from the lead article on Yahoo right now:
“I’ve been saying for some time that from our polling I think it's much tighter, a 3-point national race on Friday,” said Ed Goes, a Republican pollster who consults with the McCain campaign. “I think this race is going to be extremely tight.”

Fine, but the election's on Tuesday, not Friday. And that's the best bullshit they could come up with?

help me obie 1...you're my only hope...

I can't deny that this is getting exciting now. Don't know if I've drunk the Kool Aid, and I still have the same opinion regarding representative democracy, but as a symbolic statement from a deeply conservative superpower, Obama's election is going to resonate hugely. No wonder that the most common comparisons are Roosevelt and Lincoln. In the time of crisis, a leader with intelligence and integrity, well that alone is unusual. But honestly, none of us thought that could ever happen again. The time for the Great Men theory of history was at an end.
Which I agree with. Obama will fuck up and disappoint, frequently and badly. But it will make a change knowing at least there's an intelligence there addressing the issue even if he gets it wrong. And most importantly, people might come to expect intelligence in leaders, and might come to understand that even a Great Man doesn't lead us the way we want and need to go.
Gonna be a long night tomorrow. And I'll write as I go - not for readers, but just that it's gonna be interesting to read in years to come what I thought then and what really happened.

it's not fucking gauzy

Watched Obamaa's 30 minute ad yesterday & it's pretty classy. But the most annoying thing reading the journalism about it is that no-one has challenged McCain's comment. He called it "a gauzy, feel-good commercial".
Now fuck me, but calling it gauzy? What sort of idiot remark is that? OK, from a guy who the day before was asking 'Where's Joe?' - not real surprising. But surely the elite liberal media that is all over Obama should be at least mentioning that the word he's searching for would be "gaudy".
Calling somthing gauzy to me would suggest some kind of open wound. And if that's "feel-good" to you, you've got weird issues.

And today's image comes to you courtesy Yahoo Image search for the word "gauzy". Tomorrow might be brought to you by the letter "t".

oh and cool...

Cannot be arsed reading this, but Barack X?

Oh and work

Funny. There was a big bit in the NY Times which prompted a memo going out a couple of days ago.
Meanwhile, as I said here earlier, things are afoot already. I've had to sign a COnfidentiality Agreement. The funny thing on that was, the lawyers had worded it - literally saying "in the broadest sense possible" - that it actually means I'm not permitted to talk about work with anyone outside the company. Even if my job is primarily dealing with external parties...
That report said layoffs would start in 2 weeks. Not heard anything yet ;-)

Constitutional theories

So thinking about the American election. The standard line from us on the "left" is that whoever is lected, they are merely the puppet of the corporate capitalists. And that's pretty much true. And I don't expect Obama to go too far from that model.
Except...
The American constitution basically posits the President as a monarch. The system of government was defined in terms of its opposition to a monarchy, and a particularly discredited one at that. So although there are separations of powers, those powers are still defined in terms of their relative power to the Presidency - that is, to a monarchy. This is an attempt to create a constitutional monarchy as opposed to the absolutism of a Bourbon-style monarchy, or the corruption of the court of George III.
The upshot being, that there is still a monarchistic, absolutist potential in the role of the presidency. This is usually tempered by the fact that those standing as president are generally corrupted by decades of political life (Bush, Snr, Cheney or Nixon) or are corrupted by personal trauma and compromise (Clinton, Reagan or Kennedy).
That Obama is being widely compared to FDR is not merely that this is a Democrat going into power in the midst of a huge financial crisis. It's also that FDR was a hugely intelligent and determined person. But mostly, I think, he was the last president who had the capacity to act as a monarch. Which he did.
Roosevelt's acceptance of the nomination said:
"Throughout the nation men and women, forgotten in the political philosophy of the Government, look to us here for guidance and for more equitable opportunity to share in the distribution of national wealth…"
Which is almost identical to the message of 'Change' and the "redistribution of wealth" which Obama is proposing.
These twin themes tie to something in American culture which is deeper and more profound than the knee-jerk rightist nonsense of the last 40 years. On one side, it's that sense of a nation of outsiders, pioneers, looking for an honest buck for an honest day's work and perhaps a bit of sidelining outlaw life. On the other hand, it's also a deferential search for an authority, with a definite moralistic bent no matter how secular they may be, to replace the monarch and lead them by the hand into the land of milk, honey and forgiveness.
If Malcolm was their own Black, shining Prince; perhaps Barack Obama is about to be their orator-King, a Plebeian Tribune become Caesar, but with the wit of an Augustus, rather than the half-assed Nero we've had for the last 8 years.

Interesting Times

So nearly the entire banking system of the Western capitalist world has been to a greater or lesser degree nationalised since I last wrote. That's a pretty substantial move.
You could argue that it validates Marx, suggesting the move towards the state as the monopolistic force of capitalism is underway. Most MArxists argue the opposite, that this is the state supporting its rich; redirecting the wealth of the state for the benefit of the wealthy like some neo-feudalist robber barons.
Personally, I think the logic of capitalism dictates this move, as banking is the cornerstone of the system. However, it's bizarre that I haven't seen any forward looking analysis of where these steps take us in the long-term. It seems pretty obvious that if countries bail out banks, then the only solid investment that isn't meaningless becomes the bonds that nations issue to fund their bailouts. This in turn leads to further disinvestment from other corporations, including banks. So it's either a vicious circle or, if I get more detailed about the hypotheses, it is in fact a feedback loop. The inevitable result of this will become questioning the liquidity of nations. At some point, the interest on multi-trillion dollar debts becomes os prohibitive that nations become effectively bankrupt. With it, the rest of the financial system will collapse. Iceland is guinea-pigging this theory, and they're being left out there to hang because frankly Iceland is neither important nor dangerous enough to mattter. But what if the next country going under is Germany or the UK?
SInce the beginning of September too, Obama has moved very close to closing out the deal, as they say, in the US. 19 days to go, and everyone who wants him to win - which is about 95% of the world's population - is holding their breath and hoping some nasty disappointment isn't going to happen on November 4th. That Americans can't be *that* stupid, ye gods no. McCain has fought a nearly flawless campaign for Obama, making a complete arse of himself at every turn and throwing away any semblance of a chance. Presumably he's been paid to chuck it, as nobody could be quite so impressiveley incompetent and mean it. But nobody got rich overestimating the American voter, so we'' hold our breath and see.
I'm also going to hold my breath adn see what happens with the writing. I've sent the first bit off looking for an agent. I don't expect immediate success; in fact, I don't really expect anything, as this whole thing is outside my experience, I'm not really sure what can or might happen. But it is the next thing to do, and I can write, so sooner or later this will lead to more interesting times.
If I'm really lucky, I might lose my job soon. Sure, that sounds weird in light of the total collapse of capitalism, but I think that's still a ways down the road. The bailout will work for the few decades - hopefully our kids will wise up before that too hits the big ol' Swanee. No, the great thing of a payoff and hit the road would be to give me time to write, to put me on the consultancy path with a safety net, to let me spend more time with the kids. It's just a perfect situation if it comes together. And I'm pretty confident this time that the gig's up. I suspect most of TW4's activities will be moving to IPC. (And this isn't insider information - I'm just making a guess and starting wild rumours. If anybody actually read this blog, I could get in trouble ;-)

That'll do for now. By the way, that photo isn't doctored, it's from the end of the 3rd debate last night.

More hurricanes

So Gustav is rumbling ashore as I type. The initial impression is that he wasn't as bad as his hype. However, given that C Ray hyped him as 'Storm of the Century' on minimal basis, that's no real surprise. I guess for Nola what we're looking for now are levee breaches. There's lots of live footage on the TV of the repaired Industrial Canal by Pontchartrain being overtopped, but no breach. OTOH, the main fear was for the West Bank. The blog news has dimished rapidly: nothing coming out of the area right now. Which I find disconcerting: somebody should be getting a message out. It reminds me a little too much of Katrina - that after the storm relaxation, when in fact the devastation was appalling, but the journalists were just out of touch. Gustav was intensifying before landfall, for some reason. And he was reported as 440 miles across, same as K. Pressure falling, and though the winds may not have caught up, the storm surge may well be 14ft & upwards. He looks very impressive on satellite, after landfall.
Hanna just got declared a hurricane today too, far ahead of schedule. For some reason, there are credible extreme wind speeds being reported out of her by the HHs now. I'm presuming they're erroneous measures, but they're not being flagged as such. Either way, she's a very big storm, going to hit SE CONUS within the week. Intensity right now is anyone's guess.
And there's more storms lining up to get names. Ike should be called at 11, and well probably the next one will be named within 2 days.
It's not quite 2005, but OTOH the fat lady hasn't even started warming up yet.

tired

right. to bed. no time for olympics these days...

A coupla tired photos...

Stress, beer and anarchy

Weekend coming up shortly. Thursday evening, sat watching 92L develop into something potentially nasty. Been busy with work, ecommerce kicking off & wearing the suit for the NY visit. Russia & Georgia dress-rehearsing WW3 with a bit of sidelines cheering from the smirking Merkin, the Chimp in Chief.
At least my tomatoes are bountiful & seem to have survived the storms so far...

Words

Nothing for over 2 months here. That's simple. I've actually been getting the words down in the real writing. Finished Draft Zero - on La Gomera, symbolically enough. I've written the synopsis, found the agent I want to approach first and started on the rewrite. Only need to polish about 20 pages up for submission, and I'm going to see where this goes. I'm not even bothering about looking for a new job; this is finally where I want to be busy.

The holiday was well needed, although I was very disappointed in Femmie & Fjodor. Joyless people who rather damaged the holiday. Still, La Gomera is special enough to revel in nonetheless, but the memories are rather tainted by their bitterness. And of course that's also damaged my relationship with the in-laws.

We're getting a summer here now. Sun, heat and storms. Kind of typical Dutch summer, but of the slightly better sort. There's actually been no heatwave at all this year, but it's been pretty pleasant since we got back. STorms are usually coming at night, like last night, although I was influenced enough to sleep through it all.
I'm listening to a bit of music from the summer of '89. I've also been listening to a documentary about the History of British Dance Music. The people who say "we knew it was something special, something revolutionary happening" are full of bullshit. We had no idea. Personally, I was too trashed to know what the fuck we were doing...

I still like the music where it's soul house mixed with acid house, those first bits. Good vocals, lyrics of freedom and sounds for tripping. What more could you ask for of a hot summer evening? Especially if you're not a 40 year old guy in front of a monitor, but a 20 year old with 20,000 people in a field...

I don't particularly feel like I'm getting older. I'm coming up to the 41st birthday, and this is something I think about occasioanlly over the last year. I've been wondering when I might start to feel like a middle aged guy. But it's not happening. Seems that age and responsibility and conformity is just another bollocks myth. Sure there's the responsibility of having kids, having a house, working every day, but it's really all still playing house. It doesn't actually touch the core of you.

What else? Of my usual interests - well, looks like being an active storm season this year. It would be nice, if I manage to establish any commercial credibility as a writer, to think I can get into a storm in the next couple of years. It would be research, so even tax deductible ;-)

The Ashes are on again next year. I think today was the first day sonce the Oval in '05 that England have really looked like they have the fight to be good again. I guess the Ashes is their Olympics (which of course is also about to kick off. Amidst gods only know what mayhem may occur - protests, torture and bombs?)

Football season also about to kick off. I don't know why, but I'm rather looking forward to it this year. Must be something to do with wanting to chill out more. Funny how this cliched guy drinks beer and watches sport and takes it easy after a long day's managing. Well, I always did say the revolution isn't political, it's personal ;-)

Yeah, what else to say? Nothing much. Stuff happening in the world. Karadzic got arrested and is sat in his cell a hundred miles from here. The sort of thing to make you contemplate the Death Penalty. Which I would probably be in favour of in his case. Except today also, Barry George was finally released after being framed for killing Jill Dando. And it was obvious at the time that he was innocent, and even now there's no cops going to be held accountable. So how can you ever trust the state to have judgement over life and death? So who's to make the decision? Those of us who know the edge and who can "end it in hemp"?

I should be going to bed already. I should be down the garden centre tomorrow to buy seed potatoes and sticks. Because I'm enjoying growing veggies no end. Although it doesn't seem to be really difficult - it's more a case of watching the things grow and marvelling at them.

Nice photo's from here BTW.

Rhythm is a dancer...

OK, really long time since the last blog.
Well, the bright side of that is that the book's nearly finished - well the draft zero version at any rate. One more effort and I've got enough that I'm about ready to go and try find a buyer. So that's going to be very interesting. Of course, when I put my mind to something, it usually works out, so although I don't expect it to lead exactly where I want it to, nonetheless, where it does lead is bound to pique my curiosity...

Summer started a few weeks ago, a couple of days afetr Koninginnedag. And whilst it's not been spectacularly hot, it's been pretty warm fairly consistently (although it did get near freezing for a day last week!). So I'e got a summer feeling that I don't remember since 1989, and I'm listening now to a few songs from that fantastic summer. Highlight being Glastonbury - Fela, Youssou n'dour, and lots of others that I was too trashed to remember! Rory Mcleod was a good one for moving from hangover to party on the Saturday night. Don't actually remember much more of that Saturday night. I think I ended up with Greg in my tent, but the memory's pretty hazy.
Hopefully next year I'll take the girls over there. (Or is it taking a year sabbatical again next year? If so, then make it the Beautiful Days festy....) Anyway, a real Brit festy should be fun for them all.

Lots of things going on in the world that I haven't blogged on. Most critical, and most underexplained in the media world are two unpleasant harbingers. Oil price keeps on going north - $135 a barrel at the moment and expected to hit $200 within a year at max. So the oil companies know, even if they don't want to explain it to the public, that we've hit Hubbert's Peak. So now's the time to starting deciding on the mould for the shape of brick you're gonna be shitting...
On top of that, there's been riots worldwide over the price of food. As if we don't need enough "end of days" warnings. The price of grain has doubled. India has stopped exporting rice. As has Thailand. These are the sort of sentences you'll read in the history books in times to come and wonder whether the people living then knew the context they were living in.
A couple of kicks of the Earth - an unusual hurricane swinging into the Irrawaddy Delta of Burma, a freak event, has killed over 100,000. A Sichuan quake has killed nearly as many, just over a week later. Bloody horrible; and then again, there's going to be a lot worse to come if oil & food continue this trend.
Barack Obama's effectively the Democratic candidate for President. If he doesn't get killed (as the Vulture in Pantsuits is hoping); then it's a complete cockup if he doesn't win against McCain who is Bushed, nepotistic, uncharismatic, old and fake. Of course, never underestimate the Democrats ability to arse it up.
Bush did declare the Polar Bear endangered, after much pressure, but still lets the oil companies drill in its land. England are once again remarkably mediocre at cricket. Seems there may be the first named storm of the new season next week already. Geert Wilders surprisingly failed in his attempts to cause havoc and has already faded into irrelevance, which is a joy.
And the sun is shining and I have three wonderful daughters and today is the 10th anniversary of the day me & Es got together. Naturally, being gloriously unromantic, she's gone to bed at 10:30 and I'm left to mark the day with nothing more memorable than a blog entry. Ah, practical Calvinist culture is a strange and unusual thing...
We're away to La Gomera again, finally, in a few weeks. Es is almost ready to start freelance work, I'm finishing up the book, and my paid repertoire is now pretty impressive I guess, so we need now to look if this is what and where we really want.
Oh, and get to chill a bit as well...